Climate change is increasing the risk of severe 'food shocks' where crops fail and prices of staples rise rapidly around the world.
Researchers say extreme weather events that impact food production could be happening in seven years out of ten by the end of this century.
The authors argue that an over reliance on global trade may make these production shocks worse.
The impacts are most likely to be felt across Africa and the Middle East.
Poor harvests and low stocks of grains in 2008 combined with a host of other factors to produce a spectacular price rise in cereals, with a UN index of prices peaking at 2.8 times higher than it was at the turn of the millennium.
In 2010-11, a heat wave in Russia led to the country's worst drought in 40 years, decimating the grain harvest and leading indirectly, to food riots in North African countries as prices of bread rose rapidly.
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